Somalia: Famine Risk Emerges as Drought and Aid Cuts Push Millions Deeper into Hunger

May 14, 2026

Somalia is at a tipping point, with millions caught between recurring drought, conflict, displacement, rising costs, and shrinking aid as famine risk emerges in parts of the country. Repeated poor rains have wiped out crops, weakened livestock, and drained families’ savings, leaving them with fewer ways to survive. 

According to the IPC analysis released today, 6 million people are still facing crisis levels of hunger or worse, including 1.9 million in emergency conditions. Hunger and malnutrition are worsening faster than expected. In Burhakaba district in the Bay region, acute malnutrition has reached Extremely Critical levels, with famine risk emerging under a plausible worst-case scenario unless urgent, sustained assistance is scaled up. Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition this year. Without urgent treatment, severely malnourished children are far more likely to die from common illnesses. 

Somalia came close to famine in 2022, but funding and early action helped prevent the worst outcomes. Today, families, mostly women and children, are arriving in overcrowded displacement camps with nothing, only to find that food assistance, water trucking, health and education services, and other lifelines have been scaled back due to deep cuts in international funding. At the same time, the fallout from the Middle East crisis is pushing up costs, disrupting supply routes, and making already limited aid even harder to deliver. A new Mercy Corps analysis reinforces this warning, showing how rising fuel, food, and fertilizer costs are deepening hunger in fragile countries like Somalia, far from the conflict’s front lines.  

Daud Jiran, Country Director for Somalia at Mercy Corps, says: 

“Somalia is once again facing a preventable catastrophe. Millions of people remain trapped in crisis and emergency levels of hunger, while nearly half a million children are facing severe acute malnutrition. Just two years after early action helped Somalia avert famine, famine risk is now emerging in Burhakaba district. Behind that warning are children wasting away, families skipping meal after meal, and parents making impossible choices just to survive.  

“The rains may have come in some areas, but relief has not. Rain alone will not bring back dead livestock, restore lost livelihoods, or reopen the health and nutrition services that families depend on. Only urgent action can stop this crisis from deepening. In displacement camps, people are still arriving with nothing, only to find that the support they hoped for is no longer there. As one camp leader in Mogadishu told us: ‘Families are still coming, but help is not.’” 

“The fallout from the Middle East conflict is compounding an already devastating crisis. Rising fuel prices are driving up the cost of food, water, and transport at the very moment families can least absorb another shock. In some of the hardest-hit drought areas, a single jerrycan of water now costs up to $1.50, compared with just a few cents a year ago. For mothers already struggling to put even one meal on the table, basic necessities like water are becoming unaffordable.  

“With the humanitarian response plan just, 14.3 percent funded as of April 2026, millions are being left exposed as hunger and malnutrition rise. Somalia risks becoming one of the first major crises of the ‘post-aid era’: a place where needs are growing, survival is becoming more expensive, and the response is shrinking.  

“Somalia has already shown that famine can be prevented when action comes early and support is sustained. That action is needed now: to scale up lifesaving food, water, health, and nutrition assistance; protect children and keep them learning safely; support livelihoods and recovery; and ensure local actors can keep delivering on the frontline. But, without urgent action, famine risk will deepen, and more children will be pushed beyond the reach of lifesaving treatment. Some will not survive.” 

Mercy Corps has worked in Somalia since 2005, providing emergency humanitarian assistance and longer-term development support to communities affected by drought, flooding, conflict, and displacement. Through its livestock and inclusive finance programmes, Mercy Corps helps families and small businesses access water, animal health services, markets, finance, and business support so they can protect livelihoods and withstand future shocks.  

But massive funding shortfalls have forced critical programs to close, abruptly cutting off food deliveries, water trucking, nutrition support for severely malnourished children, and livelihood assistance. 

Notes to Editors 

  • Photos and B-roll are available from Baidoa, Southwest State of Somalia, filmed in March 2026. 

  • In March 2026, fuel prices skyrocketed by 150%, jumping from US$0.60 to US$1.50 per litre, sharply increasing the cost of transport, water trucking, and aid delivery. 

  • Water up more than 2,000 percent and $1 to $1.50 per jerrycan vs $0.06 a year ago is supported for parts of Somalia / hardest-hit drought areas. 4.2 million people or 22 percent of people in Somalia rely on unsafe water.  

  • Mercy Corps’ new analysis, “From Hormuz to the Frontlines of Hunger,” on how the war in the Middle East is driving hunger far beyond the frontlines, including in fragile contexts such as Somalia. 

  • Somalia’s livestock trade, a critical economic lifeline, remains active but under strain. Drought has weakened animal conditions and constrained supply, while disruptions linked to the Hormuz Strait crisis are driving up transport costs, increasing risks for exporters, and contributing to a wider trade shock, with Somalia’s imports reportedly down 40 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.. 
     

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