War in the Middle East Is Driving Hunger Far Beyond the Frontlines, Report Warns

May 04, 2026

Economic shockwaves from the Middle East conflict are driving up food, fuel and fertilizer prices across six of the world's most vulnerable countries, deepening hunger crises far beyond the region, according to new analysis by Mercy Corps. 

The new report, From Hormuz to the Frontlines of Hunger, traces how disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around commercial shipping are affecting six crisis-affected countries: Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Lebanon. 

The report finds that the fallout is not confined to global energy markets. Downstream, families are paying more for food, fuel, transport, and water. Farmers are entering planting seasons with sharply higher fertilizer prices, and with great uncertainty about planting decisions that must be made urgently. Communities already facing hunger have fewer ways to absorb another shock. 

Despite diplomatic announcements and an April ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal commercial operation. Shipping remains restricted, while insurance costs, rerouting, and fuel price increases continue to affect supply chains. Retail fuel prices in the countries analyzed remain elevated, even where global oil prices have partially eased.  

Key findings include: 

  • Global urea prices, a key fertilizer benchmark, rose 85% between December 2025 and March 2026.  
  • In Somalia, fuel prices more than doubled, adding pressure on food, transport and water costs.  
  • In Myanmar, diesel prices rose 160% since the start of the war, affecting irrigation, milling and transport.  
  • In Sudan, gasoline costs in Khartoum rose 66% in a single week in early April, making moving food delivery to market commercially unviable.  
  • In Lebanon, fuel price rises are compounding the effects of renewed conflict and displacement.  

The timing is especially dangerous. Sudan, Somalia, and Pakistan are entering or already inside planting windows that will shape harvests through late 2026 and into 2027. If farmers reduce fertilizer use, switch crops or plant less land, those losses cannot be reversed by a later political settlement. The result will be lower levels of production, higher food prices, and ultimately, increased food insecurity later this year.  

Melaku Yirga, Mercy Corps Vice President for Africa, says: 

“Families thousands of miles from the fighting are now paying the price of this war in the cost of bread, fuel, transport and water. These shocks are hitting people who were already doing everything they could to survive, and they are arriving at the worst possible moment for farmers and families.

“The danger now is that today’s price shock becomes tomorrow’s hunger crisis. If farmers cannot afford fertilizer or fuel, harvests will shrink. If families cannot keep up with rising costs, meals will be skipped. A ceasefire alone will not undo those impacts.” 

Mercy Corps is calling for urgent action to protect families’ ability to feed themselves and their children, pre-position agricultural inputs, and support farmers before key planting windows close. Without faster and more flexible support, the economic ripple effects of the war will continue to deepen hunger well beyond the region where the conflict began and well into the future. 

 

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