Surging Black Sea Attacks Threaten Ukraine’s Harvest and Global Food Security

August 24, 2026

New Mercy Corps analysis finds attacks across ports, railways, fuel and storage are triggering a farm-to-market shock, leaving farmers without the cash to finance next year’s planting 

Ukrainian farmers have produced a strong harvest under fire, but escalating attacks on the infrastructure connecting farms to global markets are leaving them with more grain and fewer viable ways to sell it, according to new analysis from Mercy Corps. 

The report finds that attacks on ports, civilian shipping, railways, fuel infrastructure, and storage facilities have triggered a chain reaction throughout the agricultural economy. While insecurity in the Black Sea is pushing international wheat prices higher, the additional cost and risk of moving grain is reducing the price paid to Ukrainian farmers. In some cases, prices have fallen below the full cost of production. 

Alternative export routes through the Danube and Europe cannot match the scale, speed, or cost of Ukraine’s deep-water ports. Even if these routes are expanded, they are expected to carry only part of the volume Ukraine needs to export. Meanwhile, the country could see a grain storage shortfall of between eight and 11 million tonnes by November, increasing pressure on farmers to sell immediately at a loss. 

 
Vicki Aken, Mercy Corps Country Director for Ukraine, says: 

“The only way to avert a crisis spike for Ukraine's farmers and a potential global hunger shock amplified by El Nino is a new ‘grain deal’ guaranteeing an end to attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea, and for a mechanism to make it hold. 

“Ukraine’s farmers have risked their lives for this harvest, clearing mines to plant, harvesting under drone and artillery attacks, and producing through power cuts, labor shortages, and damaged infrastructure. They should not now have their grain stranded—or their livelihoods collapse—because the world has failed to keep a safe route to market open. 

“Emergency storage, affordable finance, and open routes through Europe are essential to prevent immediate losses, but they only buy time. Rail, road, and river corridors cannot replace reliable Black Sea access. A new agreement cannot be a deal on paper only: it must protect civilian shipping and give farmers, traders, shipowners, and insurers confidence that exports can keep moving.  

“Without urgent action, grain will pile up, prices paid to farmers will fall, and many will lack the cash to buy seed, fertilizer, and machinery for next season. A durable Black Sea agreement has a critical role to play in preserving global food security and ensuring food can travel freely and safely across borders.”  

 

 

About Mercy Corps in Ukraine 

Mercy Corps has worked in Ukraine since 2015 and has supported more than 1.1 million war-affected people in Ukraine and neighboring countries. Since 2022, its humanitarian and recovery work has included cash and essential assistance, shelter, psychosocial support, restoring water and energy services, economic resilience, and grants to businesses and farms. 

 
Notes to Editors 

  • Access the full report here: Ukraine’s Agricultural Export Crisis: Infrastructure Attacks, Market Disruption, and Global Food Security 
  • Mercy Corps supports smallholder farmers and small and medium-sized agricultural businesses across 13 oblasts of Ukraine. Our assistance includes grants aimed at restoring agricultural production, improving on-farm infrastructure, and have directly supported the creation or improvement of on-farm grain storage capacity. 
  • Mercy Corps is exploring options to improve access to affordable credit and working capital so that farmers can purchase fuel, seeds, and fertilizers, continue their operations and complete the autumn planting season without being forced to sell their grain at extremely low prices. 

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