News Alert: Afghanistan Faces Returnee Surge Amid Regional Uncertainties and Precarious Iran-Israel Ceasefire

Mercy Corps prepares to scale its humanitarian response to support returnees from Iran and Pakistan with emergency cash, water, sanitation, and hygiene support 

As a precarious ceasefire between Iran and Israel comes into force, and with Iran's pre-conflict July 6 deadline looming for all undocumented Afghans to leave, Afghanistan is experiencing a sharp increase in returnees from both Iran and Pakistan. Already, more than 450,000 Afghans have returned from Iran since January, including 56,000 in the first half of June alone, alongside over 109,000 returnees from Pakistan in April.  

Many are arriving in Herat, the main returnee hub, where overcrowded border facilities and transit centers are unable to keep pace. The spike in returnees threatens to overwhelm public infrastructure and worsen an already critical humanitarian crisis, compounded by significant cuts to foreign assistance funding for Afghanistan. 

Arnaud Quemin, Mercy Corps Regional Director for Asia, says: 

“Afghanistan is facing a fast-intensifying returnee crisis as Afghan refugees from Iran and Pakistan flood back into a country already in humanitarian freefall. Afghans returning from Iran – up to 10,000 a day right now – are arriving to a country with no safety net. They arrive often with no food, shelter, or essentials. Public services in border areas simply cannot absorb large numbers of people. Shelter is non-existent for returnees, and water, sanitation, health care, and education are scarce at best. In some districts, populations have surged by more than 50%. 

“The returnee surge is colliding with economic pressures and limited resources, compounded by U.S. government funding cuts that have slashed nearly half of previous humanitarian resources. Disruptions to trade routes and rising costs of key imports – including food, fuel, and construction materials – are already inflating operational expenses and limiting market access for humanitarian organizations that are struggling to keep pace with ballooning needs. 

“Many returnees were completely settled in their communities in Iran and Pakistan for many years. They now return to an Afghanistan they no longer recognize – where schooling is limited for girls, where women’s rights and freedom of movement are threatened, and in a context where resources, especially water, are more limited than ever.” 

Mercy Corps is working in Herat and surrounding provinces to scale its humanitarian response to support Afghan returnees and the communities where they are arriving. In the coming weeks, Mercy Corps will support over 8,000 vulnerable families with cash assistance, water and sanitation services, and household/shelter kits at key border points.  

The organization has already been rehabilitating water networks, upgrading sanitation facilities, and providing hygiene kits in two districts of Kandahar, as well as managing cash-for-work activities like cleaning canals to improve irrigation systems, which provide an income source to support livelihoods for both returnees and host community members. Mercy Corps has supported nearly 200,000 arrivals from Pakistan with cash, livelihoods, and water and sanitation services between January and May 2025.