Early Aid, Livelihood Protection, or Both?

This research brief draws on the strongest impact evaluations to date to clarify when anticipatory action improves welfare and when it can protect livelihoods and contribute to longer-term resilience. The evidence shows that anticipatory action does not deliver the same outcomes everywhere. Its effects vary based on factors such as shock severity, the design of pre-arranged financing, and the feasibility of early actions. Recognizing these differences is essential for aligning expectations with what anticipatory action can realistically achieve and for ensuring programs are fit for purpose.